Showing posts with label serial pricing crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label serial pricing crisis. Show all posts

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Le Châtelier's principle: not just for chemists

I seem to be updating my blog once a month or so. I don't intend to do that, I'm just busy. This particular entry is one I've been meaning to write for months, but just haven't gotten around to.

But before I get to it, a brief digression. My sister would like to get into a poker tournament that she needs to be voted in to. If you could take a moment and vote for Jennifer Tilly, it would be most appreciated. Thank you.

Now on to the main subject. One of my favorite principles of chemistry is Le Châtelier's principle. It has several forms, but the most general (though admittedly not perfectly accurate) is Any change in status quo prompts an opposing reaction in the responding system.

What does this mean? Well let's take a simple example. Suppose we have air in a chamber, and apply pressure to compress the chamber. From Le Châtelier's principle we expect it to push back harder. In fact it does. From the ideal gas law, applied in a simplistic way, once the volume is cut in half the pressure will double, and it will indeed be pushing back harder.

However this understates the true effect. It turns out that the act of compressing the chamber heats up the gas, increasing the temperature, and this causes it to push back even harder than it would have otherwise. This rise in temperature when you compress is called adiabatic heating. The corresponding decrease in temperature when you decompress a gas is used inside of your refrigerator or AC system to move heat from a cool place to a warmer one. Similarly when warm air rises the pressure drops, which causes it to cool down. This is why air on mountain tops is colder than air at sea level. (The drop is about 10C per km of height.)

Anyways, the fine details notwithstanding, what we find is that when you push harder on this simple system, it winds up pushing back harder. And you eventually find yourself at another equilibrium. Furthermore what works for simple systems, works for many more complicated systems.

The big question that I had as a kid in chemistry class was why. Why does this always work out? I never got a good answer from my teacher, and my dissatisfaction with "it works because it always works" answers was one of the reasons why I chose to go on in math instead.

Interestingly, many years later in an advanced math course I learned the trivially simple answer. Which requires essentially no math to understand!

Here is that answer.

A system is at equilibrium when all forces on it are balanced, and it can rest in that state indefinitely. For instance take a pencil and lay it flat on a table. It is at equilibrium there. There is also another equilibrium where it is balanced on its tip, but it is very hard to put it in that equilibrium.

Now not all equilibria are created equal. A stable equilibrium is one where any perturbation of the system will cause it to head back towards that equilibrium. An unstable equilibrium is one in which some perturbation exists that causes it to head away from that equilibrium. In the example of the pencil, laying flat on its side is a stable equilibrium, while balancing on its tip is unstable. The key fact to remember about unstable equilibria is that they have a tendency to not stick around. No real system is perfectly balanced, and the imperfection will grow over time until equilibrium disappears on its own. This is is why we run into lots of pencils lying on their sides, and none balanced on their tips.

Now what does this have to do with Le Châtelier's principle? Well if we run across a system that has settled down to the point that it has a status quo we can notice, that system is extremely likely to be at some sort of equilibrium. Based on the point I made above, we can be pretty sure that it is a stable equilibrium. But Le Châtelier's principle is just a description of what it means to be at a stable equilibrium, so Le Châtelier's principle must be true of our system!

Now I should note that there is a world of difference between a local equilibrium and a global one. The pencil that is flat on the table, would be at an equal equilibrium on a different side, as a small push demonstrates. And at a better equilibrium flat on the floor, as a strong enough push will demonstrate. A mixture of hydrogen and oxygen that is heated at little bit will heat up, which increases the pressure, which causes the container it is in to expand, which cools it down, in accord with Le Châtelier's principle. But heat the same mixture enough and a chemical reaction will begin that results in it becoming hotter still, rather than cooler. (These examples are why the overly general formulation I quoted at the top is not perfectly accurate.)

It is clear that this is a very general argument, and makes it clear that the principle has nothing really to do with chemistry per se. In fact it applies to any sort of equilibrium. In chemistry or not. On the whole I find the examples outside of chemistry to be more interesting.

A case in point appears in the classic economics paper Cars, Cholera, and Cows: The Management of Risk and Uncertainty. One of the key themes is that our risk-taking behavior as a society winds up in an equilibrium. If it is at an equilibrium, then we should expect that any change which reduces risk will cause a some sort of compensatory increase in risk. Which will undo some of the positive benefits of the change. An example from that paper is that seat belt laws increase seat belt usage. But people using seat belts feel safer, and therefore drive more aggressively, resulting in more accidents. The net result? It appears that drivers are safer, pedestrians are less safe, and benefits to society are less clear than a naive analysis would predict.

Over time I've learned that equilibria are extremely common, and therefore the "unexpected consequence" is more often something to try to anticipate than something to be surprised at. For instance when a faster variation of cheetahs is bred by evolution, it creates pressure for antelope to become some combination of faster, better at spotting predators, and willing to bolt when predators are farther away. The net result is that the more effective predators wind up about equal versus their prey. (Look up the Red Queen Hypothesis for more on this.)

But how do you anticipate the unexpected? Well there are several ways.

  1. If you know that it is common to find some sort of push-back, you know to be on the lookout for it, which will make it easier to spot. For instance suppose that you start injecting a stable compound in at a constant rate. Eventually it has to break down at the same rate, the only question is where. It was not until Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina applied this line of reasoning to CFCs that it was realized that one of the most innocuous and inert chemicals discovered by man was destroying the ozone layer.

  2. There will be a set of related push-back phenomena associated with any stable equilibrium that you can find. However equilibria are very common. So look for potential equilibria, then actively ask how they are maintained. If you find them, you frequently learn something useful. For instance suppose there is an equilibrium level of major disasters in given area of human endeavor. By what means is this level maintained? I submit that it is maintained by memories of previous disaster, and desire to not experience that again. Which means that once memory fails and people become less careful, corners will be cut until disaster happens again. However memory fails on a time scale set by human lives, which tells me that an equilibrium rate for major disasters of any particular kind is never going to be more than a small number of human generations, no matter what the engineers promise us. For example it took just over 60 years to lose the regulations that were put in place to prevent another credit crisis like the one that started the Great Depression (and about 10 more years after that to experience a credit crisis - note that before the Depression credit crises arrived on average about once every 10 years), nuclear options are now getting a boost from the fact that memories of Three Mile Island are now fading, and I am willing to bet serious money that the surprisingly good record of safety devices for offshore drilling helped result in dangerous shortcuts that were key to causing the recent BP disaster.

  3. Certain equilibria and their corresponding compensation mechanisms come up very frequently to explain otherwise puzzling events. My favorite example is that people like to maintain a positive self-impression. The result is that anything that challenges our good opinion of ourselves causes serious cognitive dissonance. People do the most amazing things to avoid this cognitive dissonance. For some of the negative results on people's ability to learn, see What you refuse to see, is your worst trap.


So, even if you're not a chemist, if you squint at the world in the right way you can see Le Châtelier's principle popping up in the most unexpected and interesting places.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

What makes it science?

Many people draw a division between the hard sciences and mathematics on the one hand, and everything else on the other. The implication being that one side is "really" science and the other is not. Which claim to upset members of "soft sciences" like psychology.

This post explores the question of how justified this division is.

The starting point for my thinking is something I learned from the wonderful essay In Oldenburg's Long Shadow about the serial pricing crisis.

To understand the serial pricing crisis you must first understand the science citation index. This is nothing more or less than an index of how many times a given paper has been cited by other published papers. When you look at it, you find that papers that appear in some journals are consistently cited more often than others. This is a direct measurement of how influential the journal is, and leads to the impact factor. When you look at journals across math and the hard sciences you find that there is a hierarchy of journals. At the bottom you have low impact journals that publish only for a small niche. But key papers from that niche are published in more prominent journals that are looked at by people in a wider range of subjects. And this goes all of the way to the highest impact journal of all, Nature, which is where people try to publish the absolute best work across all of math and the hard sciences. It doesn't matter whether you're a physicist or a biologist, the absolute best research goes to Nature.

So from the science citation index we can measure the impact factor of a journal, which in turn tells us its value to researchers. The value to researchers told publishers what universities were willing to pay, and so publishers have been steadily increasing the price of the most important journals. This costs universities more than they are happy with, and so is called a crisis. Librarians call journals "serials" (because you get a series of copies of a journal), hence this crisis is called the serial pricing crisis.

Now let's look at this in reverse. Across all of math and the hard sciences it is possible to make a somewhat reasonable comparison of how important any given paper is, and how good any given journal is. Furthermore there are small groups of editors whose judgment is regularly trusted to compare the best papers from different areas of science and select which are worthy to be in their journals. In the extreme example, the editors of Nature are trusted to draw comparison across all of the hard sciences. And for the most part, scientists agree with these decisions.

When you think about it, it is truly remarkable. It implies that there is a relatively well shared concept of relative value across all of the sciences. Of course people in the hard sciences seldom remark on it, it is just how things are.

To see how remarkable it is, compare with the humanities and social sciences. They have no such hierarchy. Instead of one grand hierarchy you get independent clumps of researchers who talk to each other but not the other groups. And they find this so natural that I have seen social scientists express disbelief that, say, a physicist in fluid mechanics can hear a key result in particle physics and will know that it is important. But it is true. If you ask one physicist, "What are the 10 most important results in physics in the last 30 years" and take that list to another, the other physicist will agree that those are all important. If you ask a psychologist for a similar list and take it to another, the other is likely to not even recognize many of the items.

What is going on here is a confirmation of one of Thomas Kuhn's key claims in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Which is that in a mature science (his term) researchers have come to share a paradigm about what would be progress. When a paradigm has become so compelling that virtually all researchers in the area accept it, then people who are not in that field can see the agreement that progress is happening. When no paradigm can compel general acceptance, then from a distance all that is visible is confusion.

Kuhn is careful to point out that within the field there will be groups of researchers who are doing good work and making progress. This is certainly is true. For instance I've brought up psychology. Yet if you read books like Parenting From the Inside Out you will find that solid research is being done, that comes up with valuable information. (I highly recommend this book to anyone, parent or not, who is willing to work through it carefully.) But the problem is that the case for this line of research is not compelling enough to convince other psychologists that this is the right way to try to understand the mind. So from a distance there isn't a clear impression of solid progress being made.

Therefore the hard/soft science division boils down to shared paradigms. In the hard sciences certain lines of research have become so compelling that everyone agrees that they are the right way to go. Because of this agreement, people in nearby fields get a clear picture of what progress looks like in that field. With clear pictures of what progress looks like in multiple fields, the ground is set for making comparisons between fields, which has evolved into a reasonably well shared value system across the entirety of the hard sciences.

The soft sciences share none of this structure. As a result there is no shared agreement within the soft science about what is important, let alone a shared agreement on the relative importance of different areas of science.

To close I would like to illustrate how much shared agreement there is within the hard science about what progress looks like. I'll do this by giving my personal top 10 lists of scientific advances in each century since science began to take off in the 1600s. I haven't tried to put them in any particular order. (They often are somewhat chronological.) While people may quibble with some of my specific choices, people who are well versed in the hard sciences will generally agree on the importance of these items.

  • 1600s
    1. Objects of different mass fall at the same rate (Galileo, physics)
    2. Telescope used for astronomy (Galileo, astronomy)
    3. Kepler's laws for planetary orbits (Kepler, astronomy)
    4. Circulatory system accurately described (Harvey, biology)
    5. Microbes discovered (Leeuwenhoek, biology)
    6. Hooke's law of elasticity (Hooke, physics)
    7. Newton's laws of motion (Newton, physics)
    8. Newton's law of gravity (Newton, physics)
    9. Speed of light first measured (Ole Römer, astronomy/physics)
    10. Calculus (Newton/Leibniz, mathematics)

  • 1700s
    1. Lightning explained as static electricity (Ben Franklin, physics)
    2. Fluid mechanics began to be analyzed (Bernoulli, physics)
    3. Linnaean taxonomy system created (Linnaeus, biology)
    4. Halley's comet's orbit predicted (Halley, astronomy)
    5. Coulomb's law for attraction of electric charges (Coulomb, physics)
    6. Oxygen discovered (Priestly/Scheele, chemistry) leading to the rejection of pholostigon (Lavoisier)
    7. Uranus discovered (William Herschel, astronomy)
    8. Conservation of mass demonstrated (Lavoisier, chemistry)
    9. Stability of solar system confirmed (Laplace, astronomy)
    10. Gravitational constant measured (Cavendish, physics)

  • 1800s
    1. Fourier series discovered, used to analyze heat transport (Joseph Fourier, mathematics/physics)
    2. Ice ages discovered, theory of The Flood rejected (Louis Agassiz, geology)
    3. Central Limit Theorem aka The Bell Curve (de Moivre/Laplace/Galton/Lyapunov etc, statistics) different versions were proven at different times, and Galton was making good use of it years before it was finally proven in generality by Lyapunov
    4. Thermodynamics (many people starting with Carnot, physics)
    5. Conservation of Energy (Joule/Mayer, physics)
    6. Descent with Modification aka Evolution (Darwin, biology)
    7. Germ theory (Pasteur, biology)
    8. Atomic theory (Avagadro/Loschmidt etc, chemistry)
    9. Maxwell's equations of electromagnetism (James Maxwell, physics)
    10. Periodic table (Mendeleev, chemistry)

  • 1900s
    1. Relativity (Einstein, physics)
    2. Radioactive Dating (Ernest Rutherford/Bertrand Boltwood, physics)
    3. Quantum Mechanics (Heisenberg/Schrödinger, physics)
    4. Gödel's Incompleteness Theorem (Kurt Gödel, mathematics)
    5. Hypothesis Testing (Ronald Fisher/Jerzy Neyman/Karl Pearson/Egon Pearson, statistics) - Egon was Karl's son
    6. The Structure of DNA (Watson/Crick/Franklin, biology)
    7. Continental Drift (proposed Wegener and confirmed by lots of people at once, geology)
    8. The Big Bang (Georges Lemaître/Edwin Hubble, astronomy) general acceptance followed the discovery of the CMBR by Arno Penzias and Robert Wilson
    9. Synthesis of the Elements in Stars aka B2FH (Geoffrey Burbidge/Margaret Burbidge/William Fowler/Fred Hoyle, astronomy/physics)
    10. Standard Model (Sheldon Glashow/Steven Weinberg/Abdus Salam, physics) tens of billions of dollars have been spent verifying this theory!
  • 2000s - There is likely more disagreement over these
    1. Human Genome Project
    2. Neutrino oscillation
    3. Rapidly improving knowledge of planets around other stars
    4. Poincare conjecture solved
    5. Age of universe measured to within 1% accuracy (it is 13.7 billion years old)
    6. FOXP2 critical for language
    7. Preserved soft tissue from dinosaur?
    8. Stem cells from skin cells
    9. New family of high temperature superconductors
    10. Molecular evolution is irreversible